sDOM II - The Grand Final ph34r vs Monk prediction

4v4 sDOM II

sDOM II - The Grand Final ph34r vs Monk prediction

Postby ulo » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:26 pm

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Statistically this game is going to end up in the The Game Plan corner. They have better amount of frags and domination points. They also have the better efficiency and have picked up more armor. However The Incredulous PACO has the better aim and has had more amplifiers and more Godlikes. But the statistics give The Game Plan the victory




Picked:
ph34r has on his way to the finals picked Cinder and Deck16 in the Quarter Final and then decided to go with Seraphim and Typhoon in the Semi Final. While Monk picked Seraphim and Tempest in his Quarter Final game and since the Semi Final sadly ended in a forfeit no maps where picked there. Leaving Monk with a bigger amount of maps to pick from. Seraphim is the only map we can't see being picked in the Final, however it's still possible to be played if the game goes to 5 maps and it's chosen as the decider.


Prediction for each map:

Gharden

Positions
Basement: ph34r vs unrealshots
Penthouse: Sunny vs n0b
Observatory: csnafk vs Banko
Freelance: MP/5 vs Monk

Having not seen The Incredulous PACO play this map during this season makes it hard to say how they would form their forces. However I think the key to them in this map is to give ph34r a hard time in the basement. So I would put unrealshots down there versus him and have Monk swing down for shield belts. However on the other side MP/5 will swing down to help out, which should lead to some really impressive showdowns for control of the shield belt. Also one of the keys is how Penthouse goes, can n0b keep it up with the much higher salary Sunny? I think he can. Observatory should be mainly a stalemate game in my thoughts. In the end I give The Game Plan a slight advantage on this map, but if unrealshots and n0b has good games and Monk is on top of the timings and steal most of the amplifiers this could go his way also.


Campgrounds

Positions
Dungeon: csnafk vs Banko
Statues: MP/5 vs unrealshots
Bridge: ph34r, Sunny vs Monk, n0b

The bread and butter of sDOM, how nice would it not be to see a game in the Final on this map. But who would want to pick it? Well let's find out! Down in the Dungeon I think it should be close to a level play field, any points either team takes here is a great bonus and I think I give Banko a slightly higher chance of getting the few extra points if any will be won. What a game we could be up for on Statues! unrealshots vs MP/5 could very well be the decider of the entire map, if either of them are able to get a advantage here. MP/5 is known for being great on this point, but unrealshots has during the season beaten up some very good opponents. So this is really though to see a winner, but I think unrealshots has a slight advantage here, but only very slight. On the Bridge I however give ph34r and Sunny a better chance of winning, since they feel like a stronger fragging team then Monk and n0b does. If ph34r get a few good amp runs going this map could be swung his way. However Monk is very good on this map and should have a good chemistry with n0b. If they can keep it close here I think Banko and unrealshots could give them the win. But it will be within 10 points in my mind. So I am unsure if any team will take a gamble on this map.


Cinder

Positions
Corner: csnafk vs Banko
Nook: MP/5 vs n0b
Top: ph34r, Sunny vs Monk, unrealshots

One of the big time renewed maps this season. I think neither team feels comfortable on this map and ph34r has also already picked it. This is also one of the few maps The Incredulous PACO has lost on so I doubt they want to pick it. However if it's picked I believe The Game Plan has the upper hand. Corner should yet again be a battle between csnafk and Banko with I think neither giving the other many more points then they gather. Nook I think MP/5 will play, but it could also be a point ph34r likes and takes. In either case if Monk or unrealshots ain't down to take the challenge here I think they could have a hard time winning this point. On the other hand they could be winning Top and getting the amps if they leave n0b to fend for himself here. With the amp they could help n0b out and even out the play field. Still I think The Game Plan is the better team on this map so I don't think we will see it.


Curse][

Positions
Hallway: Sunny vs Banko
Ledge: csnafk vs unrealshots
Top: ph34r, MP/5 vs Monk, n0b

Both teams have had strong showings on this map and have a great team for it. Here we could see both teams winning one point comfortable, with Sunny beating Banko on Hallway and unrealshots taking csnafk for a ride on Ledge. So the question then is how would Top end? Well both teams have shown they can take down good opponents there. So is it better to have control of Ledge or Hallway to help Top? I personally think Ledge is the more important point here, since they can also help to boost for amp if needed. So if unrealshots can help out with control of both the amplifier and the shield belt I think The Incredulous PACO can take this map. But The Game Plan has what I think more frag power on Top and that could swing the chance of getting amps and shield belts in their favour.


Deck16][

Positions
Lifts: MP/5 vs Banko
Slime: Sunny vs n0b
Boxes: ph34r, csnafk vs Monk, unrealshots

This map both teams have destroyed opponents on and specially my own team :'(. ph34r has already picked this map earlier and I think he didn't feel he was comfortable on it versus Monk. The Incredulous PACO has decided to put all the frag power they have in the big area in the middle of this map. With Monk and unrealshots controlling Boxes and n0b on Slime they have some serious amount of control there. It's all up to how many points Banko can grab from MP/5 here and how much Sunny can help out with the control of middle. Since Monk and unrealshots definitely has more frag power then csnafk and ph34r does. I would give this to The Incredulous PACO, but yet again it's very hard to say. If MP/5 has a great game he could help middle also and swing that battle to his team.


Nitro

Positions
Bertha: MP/5 vs Banko
Flow: csnafk vs n0b
Corner: Sunny vs unrealshots
Freelance: ph34r vs Monk

Monk has been said to be a god on this map. We have not seen this yet, but I think we might tonight. Both teams have had some great games on this map, however Monk was missing when his team played it. On Corner I think we could see a battle between unrealshots and Sunny. Both have won this point before and know very well how to play it. This could be a really tight game but if I have to pick a winner I would give it to unrealshots. He has shown time and time again he is up to the task of brining the gold home for his team. On Flow we have a game between csnafk vs n0b which I think will be a hard game for csnafk. However on Bertha we have MP/5 vs Banko instead which should go the other way, Banko could be in for a rough game versus MP/5. So it's more down to which trio is the stronger, ph34r, MP/5 and csnafk or Monk, n0b and Banko. I think with the setup and with the possibility of Monk being a god with the amplifier he could take this. This I think is one of the bigger possible maps to be picked tonight.


Olden

Positions
Low: ph34r vs Banko
Mid: MP/5 vs unrealshots
Top: csnafk, Sunny vs Monk, n0b

A strong map for both teams yet again. Mid could be another battle between unrealshots and MP/5 that is hard to predict as usual. The one who get the best help from Top is the one who should win this one. Unless ph34r decides to play Top I think his team will have a rough one here. Since Monk has put Banko down low I would leave csnafk to give him a round and run top with Sunny if I was ph34r. He did show last season that he does know very well how to play Top also. With Sunny and ph34r on Top they should be able to counter Monk and n0b from getting the amp and in doing so keep the game close. If they instead decided to go with ph34r low, I think Monk will do as he has done before and run around the map and control it totally. Ending in a map win for him. If they go with the other tactic it will be a very close and really hard to predict map. But I feel Monk has a little advantage on this map.


Seraphim

Positions
Low: MP/5 vs n0b
Mid: ph34r vs Monk
Top: csnafk, Sunny vs Banko, unrealshots

This map can't be picked, so I will not write much about it. If n0b can keep up with MP/5 and Monk keep ph34r in check they should win this, since I think Top is in favour of Banko and unrealshots over csnafk and Sunny. I feel The Game Plan has a advantage here.


SlimeTime

Positions
Low: MP/5 vs Banko
Tears: Sunny vs Monk
Gallery: ph34r, csnafk vs n0b, unrealshots

Was picked by Rummy versus ph34r cause he was a bit untested on it and it was a close fight. On the other hand The Incredulous PACO proved week 1 that they can destroy the opponent on this map. So I think this could be a possible map tonight. The question is how will Banko fair versus MP/5? Also will n0b and unrealshots be able to get a big amount of the amps from csnafk and ph34r? Also is Monk up for the challenge to take Sunny down? I think this is a map where The Incredulous PACO has a good advantage, Monk should definitely have the skill to win versus Sunny however will it be more then MP/5 can grab from Banko. unrealshots and n0b also feel more well oiled then ph34r and csnafk does. unrealshots if he get the amp will be hard to control, but ph34r has a internal clock like none other and will be there to take every power up away from him if he run around with the amp. This I belive though is one of the maps where Monk should feel he has the advantage.


Tempest

Positions
Low Tunnel: MP/5 vs n0b
Armor: csnafk vs Banko
High Perch: ph34r, Sunny vs Monk, unrealshots

One of ph34r's top maps last season and one of the few who picked it. He is a beast with timing things and grabs almost all power ups on the entire map if he is not stopped. Monk has also already picked it, maybe because he know how good ph34r is on this map. I had a hard time to guess how The Game Plan would deploy their forces, but I think either Sunny or MP/5 will make ph34r company on High Perch while the other take care of the Tunnel. This is a map who will go to the team who can control boots and amplifier best. Since I think both Low Tunnel and Armor will be so close that High Perch is the decider. In the end ph34r's experience on this map will be the decider and The Game Plan is the favourite.


Typhoon

Positions
The Pit: csnafk vs Banko
Hideout: ph34r vs Monk
Ledge: MP/5, Sunny vs n0b, unrealshots

The map with the so called easiest point to tie, should prove to be exactly that a tied point. This map would be very tight on all tree points. Whoever get those few points on each point will in the end stand as winner. I give ph34r a bigger chance to end up with a few more points then Monk and Banko to end up with a few more then csnafk. I also would give MP/5 and Sunny the slight advantage versus n0b and unrealshots on Ledge. As many know this is not a map known for it's great amp runs, so I don't think they will be a big contribution to any of the teams. So this is more a slow fight for every point there is. This is one of the maps I think The Game Plan has a minor advantage on.


Peak

Positions
Low: ph34r vs n0b
Mid: csnafk vs unrealshots
Top: MP/5, Sunny vs Monk, Banko

Before the development final I would definitely said this is a map I favour The Game Plan on, since they have ph34r down low and it will be hard to control MP/5 and Sunny on top even for Monk. However with the recent show by n0b I think they have a good chance of taking this. If he can keep ph34r tight again and unrealshots could win Mid by a lot, they are in a good place. Since I believe unrealshots and Monk are good enough together to pull the amp boost by the Mid guy of. Which could help with getting control of Top for The Incredulous PACO. So I have to give this map to The Incredulous PACO, but only if n0b put up the same show he did last time.





I think and really hope this will be a tight 5 mapper. With good choices on the map picking I think both teams can win their own maps. Monk I think will be considering Nitro, SlimeTime, Peak and possible Olden. While ph34r I think is considering Campgrounds, Gharden, Tempest and possible Curse. I can see The Incredulous PACO winning Nitro and SlimeTime while The Game Plan wins Gharden and Campgrounds and then it's really hard to say which map is going to be the fifth map. I could guess on maps like Olden, Curse and Seraphim being left to the very end. In the end I think The Game Plan has a slightly stronger team and is more versatile, which should give them a edge if it goes to five maps. However The Incredulous PACO definitely has a chance, since I feel their map picks are more certain. In the end I can only say: Let the games begin!
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Re: sDOM II - The Grand Final ph34r vs Monk prediction

Postby csnafk » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:38 pm

Awesome writeup again ulo. Way to deliver :arrow:
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Re: sDOM II - The Grand Final ph34r vs Monk prediction

Postby MP/5 » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:33 pm

this prediction is greatness, too bad it did not get the attention it should have had since it was released right before the match.
nonetheless terrific job again ulo, thanks for the efforts.
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